On the agenda: Albany Agenda Packet — Flock Camera (Oct 7)

Public Safety Commission

AGENDA

Wednesday, October 7, 2026
6:00 p.m.
This meeting includes in-person and virtual participation.
Albany Fire Department Station 11
611 Lyon St SE, The Ralston Room
Or join the meeting here:

https://council.albanyoregon.gov/groups/saf/zoom
Please help us get Albany’s work done.
Be respectful and refer to the rules of conduct posted by the main door to the Chambers and on the website.

1. Call to order
2. Roll call
3. Approval of August 5, 2026, minutes.
4. Public Comment
Persons wanting to provide comments may: email written comments or register to speak by
emailing [email protected] prior to 12:00 pm on August 5, 2026, or appear in
person to speak at the meeting.
5. Department reports
a. Police- Jerry Drum
b. Fire- Kevin Vining
6. Next meeting date: Wednesday, December 2, 2026, at the Albany Police Department.
This meeting is accessible to the public via video connection. The location for in-person attendance is
accessible to people with disabilities. If you have a disability that requires accommodation, please notify city
staff at least 48 hours in advance of the meeting at: [email protected] 541-917-7564
Testimony provided at the meeting is part of the public record. Meetings are recorded, capturing both inperson and virtual participation, and are posted on the city website.

albanyoregon.gov

Public Safety Commission
MINUTES

August 5, 2026
6:00 p.m.
Albany Police Department, Community Room
Approved: DRAFT
Call to Order
Chair Cynthia Green called the meeting to order at 6:03 p.m.
Roll Call
Members present: Cynthia Green; Bessie Johnson; Kevin Kreitman; Sheree Speaks-Mahi, Joanna Robinson;
Mark Stewart
Members absent: Erik Rau; Nick Fowler
Staff present: Chief of Police Marcia Harnden; Fire Chief Chris LaBelle; Captain Jerry Drum
Rochelle James, Administrative Assistant
The June 3, 2026, minutes were approved as presented.
Fire Chief LaBelle and Chief of Police Marcia Harnden recognized Walker Blevins, Bailey Blevins ( unable to
attend in person), Elijah Sneckner, and Rylan Powen for their actions during a vegetation fire at Timber Linn
Park. Fire Chief LaBelle read the following statement:
On July 8, at approximately 2:30 p.m., the Albany Fire Department was dispatched to a reported vegetation
fire at Timber Linn Park. The initial report indicated a fire in short grass; however, strong winds were rapidly
pushing the fire east toward an area of tall grass, brush, and trees. Beyond that vegetation were structures
along Goldfish Farm Road, creating the potential for a much more significant incident.
Engine 13 arrived to find an approximately quarter-acre fire that had nearly reached the heavier fuels.
Members of the City’s Parks & Recreation Department were already on scene, working to slow the fire’s
spread until firefighters arrived. The Engine 13 crew quickly brought the fire under control and extinguished it
before it could extend into the heavier vegetation or threaten nearby homes.
While suppression efforts were underway, the on-duty Battalion chief began speaking with witnesses at the
park. During those conversations, several young community members shared that they had taken
photographs of the individual they believed had started the fire. Just minutes later, officers from the Albany
Police Department arrived, obtained witness statements and photographs, and immediately began
searching the area. By approximately 3:25 p.m., the suspect had been located and taken into custody.
This incident is an outstanding example of what can be accomplished when first responders and community
members work together. The quick thinking and willingness of Ryan, Elijah, Walker, and Bailey to document
what they witnessed and share that information with responding officers played a critical role in identifying
and locating the suspect. Their actions helped prevent a potentially dangerous individual from posing a
continued risk to the community.
The Albany Fire Department and Albany Police Department are grateful for their awareness, courage, and
commitment to helping keep our community safe. Their actions exemplify the positive impact that engaged
citizens can have during an emergency, and they deserve recognition for their outstanding assistance.

Public Safety Commission MINUTES
August 5, 2026

Page 2 of 5

For their outstanding actions, Chief Harnden and I would like to present each of them with a challenge coin
from our respective department.
The three recipients present were each presented with challenge coins and photos were taken with the
permission of family members who were present during this portion of the commission meeting.
Commissioner Kevin Kreitman moved to remove item A on the agenda, listed under Business, from the
members. Commissioner Kreitman explained that he did not believe the Public Safety Commission was the
appropriate forum to discuss the subject matter of the report Commissioner Mark Stewart compiled.
Commissioner Kreitman referenced the commission charter and its stated missions as a basis for the motion
and advised that he felt the subject was outside the scope of the commission. Commissioner Kreitman said
he appreciated the work Commissioner Stewart put into the report but felt presenting the information to the
City Council may be a more appropriate venue.
Commissioner Bessie Johnson seconded the motion, and Chair Cynthia Greene asked if anyone would like to
discuss the motion.
Commissioner Mark Stewart stated that he felt the commission should review the report he compiled, that
the subject matter was important, that a potential crisis was coming quickly, and that the matter was not
receiving the serious attention it deserved. Commissioner Stewart expressed concerns about the city’s
preparedness for an oil crisis if supply was depleted or unavailable. Commissioner Stewart pointed to what
he viewed as an inadequate response to the global pandemic of 2020 by local, state, and federal
governments and expressed concerns about potential supply shortages that could impact emergency
services and economic disruptions that need to be evaluated and prepared for.
After discussion among the commissioners, the body voted to remove the item from the agenda.
Commissioners Kreitman, Johnson, and Green voted Yes. Commissioners Speaks, Robinson, and Stewart
voted No. The vote was a tie.
Commissioner Green suggested providing Commissioner Stewart 15 minutes after the staff reports to
provide an overview of his presentation to the commission. All commissioners agreed.
Chief Harnden announced her retirement from the Albany Police Department. She advised she is taking a
position with the Department of Public Safety Standards and Training in Salem, Oregon, in November
2026. Captain Jerry Drum will be the Interim Chief until a replacement is found.
Staff Updates:
Police Update – Captain Jerry Drum
There have been four additional overdoses since the last time the commission met. All have been due to
fentanyl. There doesn’t appear to be any more heroin in our community at all. We have seen some spiking
with meth, but we have not seen any overdoses caused by it. You will probably see an increase in cocaine at
the next meeting, and we will discuss it at that time.
In 2025, we hired 11 people. In 2026, to date, we have hired 12 people: 11 officers and one clerk. We
currently have two officers in the process. We have one vacancy coming up, so we will begin the hiring
process by identifying candidates.
With the nicer weather, we have seen a spike in shoplifting as more people are out in stores. Livability
challenges, such as prohibited camping reports, have spiked, and those reports keep coming in. This shows
our community is active, paying attention, and continuing to make those reports. Generally, the crime rate

Public Safety Commission MINUTES
August 5, 2026

Page 3 of 5

remains stable. We have seen fewer calls for service. Our proactive, self-initiated activities are lower this
year, but we believe that can be attributed to the number of new officers on the street and training them.
Commissioner Robinson asked about the difference between business burglary and shoplifting. Captain
Drum explained that burglary occurs when a business is closed, and someone breaks glass or breaks in a
door to steal. It can occur during the daytime, but generally it happens in the evening.
Commissioner Johnson asked about speeding ticket statistics. Chief Harnden advised statistics are
available on the city website. Commissioner Stewart asked if the red-light cameras were operational, and he
was advised those cameras have never been out of operation. Commissioner Robinson asked if there were
any specific reasons to explain the increase in person crimes. Captain Drum advised that numerous factors
could explain the increase, but there is no way to attribute it to any specific cause.
Fire Update – Chief Chris LaBelle
We ended fiscal year 2026 with 11,656 total calls for service, slightly down from the previous fiscal
year. Commission Chair Cynthia Greene asked how Albany's calls for service compared to other
cities. Albany has more calls than Corvallis, which has a larger population.
Fire and life safety evaluations, which are business inspections, are not at the level they need to be. We have
three employees in our life and safety division, and two of them do inspections. We lost two positions in the
2021 budget cycle. Since then, we have tried to hire additional Deputy Fire Marshals through grant
opportunities but have been unsuccessful. Those inspections are important to make sure the building is
suitable for their business plan. Commissioner Speaks-Mahi asked what obstacles there are to obtaining
grants. Chief Labelle advised that you do not typically receive feedback on why you are not awarded the
grant. Chief Labelle stated that Albany Fire is conducting a standard of coverage and feasibility study with AP
Triton, which he believes will show the fire and life safety division as woefully understaffed. According to the
national standard, a community of our size with the type of industry and care facilities we have should
probably have around seven individuals in that division.
Looking at average response times, emergent responses average seven minutes and three seconds, which is
very good. The City of Millersburg reached out with questions as their average response time was seven
minutes and thirty seconds. They were concerned about their response time for a city of their size.
Commissioner Kreitman asked about the new dispatch system and if AFD is notified immediately after the
address and coding are entered. Chief Labelle confirmed this and advised response times should improve.
He also said they will investigate any potential hurdles with the new system for dispatchers that need to be
addressed. The average response time to structure fires is six minutes and twenty-four seconds to get on
scene. Reported structure fires have dipped this year compared to last year. Those fires can take several
hours and keep crews out of service for extended periods.
Community Paramedic Hillary Kosmicki is doing a phenomenal job. You can practically draw a nexus
between our reduction in calls for service and our lifting device program at our care facilities. Those devices
are used an average of 30 times per month, which translates to a significant reduction in 911 calls at those
facilities.
The top 25 responses have not really changed, with the top three being sick person fall, lift assist, and
breathing problems.
There are ongoing conversations with Samaritan Health on how we can improve hospital-to-hospital
transfers to get the ambulance back into service quickly.

Public Safety Commission MINUTES
August 5, 2026

Page 4 of 5

The number of concurrent calls continues to rise, affecting resource availability.
Vice Chair Johnson asked about the large fire on Riverside Drive last week. Chief LaBelle confirmed this was
a 10-to-15-acre fire caused by lightning that was threatening structures on Riverside Drive. A helicopter was
requested through the state fire marshal’s office. The helicopter arrived about 55 minutes later, and crews
made good progress. Thirty-five homes were on a level two evacuation notice, which AFD had never done
before. We also had assistance from Sweet Home Fire Department's new wildland division, which is a 20person hand crew, as well as the Oregon Department of Forestry. We appreciate all the partnerships and
mutual agreements we have in place. At the same time, we had several medical calls in town and another
fire on the other end of town.
In June, we held heart screenings for student athletes at South Albany High School, and of the 52 student
athletes who participated, two were found to have cardiac abnormalities. A cardiologist then works with the
family for further checkups.
In a joint effort with APD, we had 100 kids attend Safety Camp in June.
We had 14 small fires related to fireworks on the 4th of July, and many were caused by illegal fireworks.
Police and Fire have discussed how to respond to and address them, but we are not sure what more can be
done. Commissioner Stewart asked whether all fireworks are illegal, and Chief LaBelle advised that Albany
does not have a fireworks ban; however, most of the fireworks that started the fires were illegal aerial
fireworks. Commissioner Stewart asked if they were illegal to sell since they are illegal to use. Chief LaBelle
advised they are most likely purchased in Washington state and brought into Oregon.
Chief LaBelle provided a 2026 Oregon Wildfire Season Response Summary handout to the commission.
Albany Fire has responded to 11 major wildfire incidents with 17 AFD personnel deployed. Three were prepositioned in southern Oregon and are now heading to central Oregon to the Rome complex fire. The State
of Oregon reimburses conflagrations at 100%, so there is no cost to the city. We also receive funding to
recoup some of our equipment costs. For example, a Type 1 city fire engine costs $100.00 per hour. That
money goes toward equipment replacement. Chief LaBelle emphasized that if helping with wildfires would
affect local staffing, we would not send people, because the Albany community is the number one priority.

Business from the Commission
Commissioner Stewart provided an overview of his presentation titled “2026 Oil/Energy Crisis”.
Commissioner Stewart discussed the concept of demand distraction as related to oil. He explained that oil
touches almost every commodity and is the bedrock of society and the economy. He discussed oil supply
and demand, the roles of extraction companies and refineries, and its sale on the open market. He
discussed the oil and gas crisis of the 1970s, caused by a 7% reduction in supply by the Gulf nations, and its
effect on the economy due to production cuts and increased product costs.
Commissioner Stewart then discussed the state of the oil supply today and his view that oil prices are being
artificially driven down, with roughly a 30% loss to the entire oil supply. Oil prices have basically stayed the
same but should be much higher. Commissioner Stewart expressed his concerns that a shortage is
occurring, but people do not see the dangers ahead. He discussed his frustrations with the administration's
stance and actions as related to the ongoing Iran conflict and its effect on oil prices. He also expressed
concern over the amount of crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Commissioner Stewart discussed the reliance on oil, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab alMandab, destruction or damage to pipelines and production facilities, and the cratering of global inventories.

Public Safety Commission MINUTES
August 5, 2026

Page 5 of 5

He then discussed his concern about the lack of preparation by local and state governments for a
devastating oil crisis or a complete loss of supply. He discussed gas stations running out of fuel, people
being unable to go to work, and food and supply shortages due to loss of transportation.
Commissioner Stewart discussed some ideas to mitigate some of the effects if we were to suddenly run
out. He advised that we need to acknowledge what is happening and prepare for the worst-case
scenario. He advised that some oil products are becoming harder to find, and some companies are planning
for potential shortages.
Commissioners then discussed the information Commissioner Stewart presented and offered suggestions
for other avenues he could use to address his concerns and raise awareness.
Next Meeting Date
The next regularly scheduled meeting is on October 7, 2026, at the Albany Fire Department.
Adjournment
Hearing no further business, Chair Greene adjourned the meeting at 7:10 p.m.
Respectfully submitted,

Reviewed by,

Rochelle James
Administrative Assistant I

Reviewer’s Name
Reviewer’s Title

*Documents discussed at the meeting that are not in the agenda packet are archived in the record. The
documents are available by emailing [email protected].

PUBLIC SAFETY COMMISSION
DEPARTMENT REPORT
August 5, 2026

Month

Albany Fire Department
Total Responses
FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26

July

1,070

992

1,001

1,015

1,061

August

1,048

968

1,018

1,118

1,011

September

1,010

920

862

998

921

October

958

972

957

1064

1,047

November

941

970

891

938

929

December

945

1158

970

997

1009

January

911

1007

1118

999

952

February

829

914

816

957

885

March

853

880

936

903

947

April

864

905

922

875

863

May

896

891

996

1013

1003

June

936

924

973

990

1027

Total

11,291

11,495

11,459

11,859

11,656

Month
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
Total

Fire & Life Safety
Evaluations
FY 23
FY 24
FY 22
79
67
142
97
51
98
60
98
88
54
82
69
31
70
85
83
86
95
72
52
172
72
52
132
102
76
110
54
77
92
57
81
73
75
72
175
836
864
1,083

FY 25
79
91
70
98
143
70
65
57
78
48
38
69
906

FY 26
89
84
37
58
41
45
69
59
50
40
55
30
657

Community Paramedic Activity
Average Response Times
City of Albany Calls Only
911 Call Received to Arrival Time
FY 22 FY 23 FY 24

FY 25

FY 26

Emergent
Responses

7:10

7:18

7:06

7:25

7:03

Structure
Fires

6:18

6:09

6:35

6:27

6:24

Reported
Structure
Fires

111

127

109

125

90

Average
Scene Time
Structure Fires

01:21:09

Month
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
Total

FY 22
40
50
45
46
13
14
30
21
14
33
29
44
306

FY 23
47
29
26
38
40
23
58
19
54
33
64
46
477

FY 24
28
45
24
40
53
39
56
45
21
22
58
20
373

FY 25
51
26
17
34
19
27
55
36
32
50
54
58
459

CUSTOMER SERVICE ∙ DIVERSE ORGANIZATION ∙ INTEGRITY ∙
HEALTH & WELFARE ∙ PROFESSIONALISM & TEAMWORK

FY 26
36
22
32
31
22
39
46
74
22
41
37
36
438

Top 25 Responses
SICK PERSON
FALL
LIFT ASSIST
BREATHING PROBLEMS
TRANSFER
UNCONSCIOUS FAINTING
CHEST PAIN
MVC INJURY
FIRE ALARM ACTIVATION
UNKNOWN MEDICAL PROBLEM
SEIZURE
HEMORRHAGE BLEED
STROKE CVA TIA
ABDOMINAL PAIN OR PROBLEMS
OD INGESTION POISONING
EMERGENCY TRANSFER
TRAUMA INJURY
PSYCHIATRIC SUICIDE ATTEMPT
HEART PROBLEMS AICD
DIABETIC PROBLEM
FIRE MOVEUP ONLY
CARDIAC OR RESPIRATORY ARREST
SMALL MISC FIRE
ASSAULT RAPE VIOLENT TRAUMA
BACK PAIN

Row
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Grand Total

Sunday
47
41
33
39
28
29
47
55
57
85
93
83
85
95
94
73
90
79
87
90
73
64
52
46
1565

Monday
36
36
28
30
29
39
38
60
69
81
98
102
88
95
110
80
108
90
77
85
95
90
58
41
1663

Count
1726
1054
914
777
651
621
596
574
478
457
340
296
267
216
206
199
187
183
180
169
147
140
135
110
108

Tuesday
44
30
31
31
30
33
47
69
87
86
100
113
117
103
100
102
102
93
94
80
89
92
75
52
1800

# of Concurrent
1

4235

2

4052

3

2210

4

854

5

225

6

63

7

9

8

3

9
10

Wednesday
30
54
33
32
22
35
41
79
74
64
115
100
82
94
79
113
94
95
112
85
81
74
41
38
1667

Thursday
49
31
35
30
28
32
35
60
83
89
71
93
84
97
76
92
92
98
76
88
79
70
49
34
1571

2

Friday
42
42
25
31
35
43
45
73
79
91
84
89
105
100
86
91
102
104
111
112
95
88
62
62
1797

Saturday
41
46
44
32
27
29
34
65
63
70
88
90
80
85
91
92
92
109
81
87
78
69
47
50
1590

CUSTOMER SERVICE ∙ DIVERSE ORGANIZATION ∙ INTEGRITY ∙
HEALTH & WELFARE ∙ PROFESSIONALISM & TEAMWORK

Grand Total
289
280
229
225
199
240
287
461
512
566
649
670
641
669
636
643
680
668
638
627
590
547
384
323
11653

CUSTOMER SERVICE ∙ DIVERSE ORGANIZATION ∙ INTEGRITY ∙
HEALTH & WELFARE ∙ PROFESSIONALISM & TEAMWORK

PUBLIC SAFETY COMMISSION
DEPARTMENT REPORT
August 2026

Albany Police Department
Narcan

Year

ODs

OD Death

Heroin

Fentanyl

Meth

LSD

10

2019

21

2

12

20

2020

29

1

39

2021

50

72

2022

155

Cocaine

2

3

1

0

14

4

6

2

1

4

21

15

7

1

1

91

11

14

63

18

0

1

2023

126

18

5

105

23

1

3

82

2024

95

11

0

68

13

1

7

104

2025

69

8

0

56

11

2

3

30

2026

20

1

0

9

4

0

1

궯 Summary Highlights (Year-to-Date)
궮
궭
궨
궬
Person Crimes: Up +8.68% YTD, driven by increases in Domestic Violence (+23.33%), Rape
(+40.00%), and Aggravated Assault (+9.68%).








Property Crimes: Slightly up +1.60% YTD.

o

궩 Major Increase: Larceny – Shoplifting rose by +73.27% (202 to 350 incidents).
궨
궧

o

궫 Major Decrease: Business Burglary dropped 81.48% (27 to 5) and Vandalism
궨
궪
dropped -61.70% (94 to 36).

Livability Offenses: Down -44.28% YTD, primarily due to a drop in Abandoned Vehicles
(-50.58%). Overnight/Prohibited Camping saw an increase (+300.00%, from 4 to 16 cases).

Calls for Service & Response Times: Total calls dropped -8.28% YTD. Average response times
increased across all priority levels, most notably for Priority 4+ calls (+152.22% YTD).

2026 Oil/Energy Crisis
Independent Analysis for __Albany____ as of June 2026

The Big Questions:
-Is there or is there not a crisis?
-If there is a crisis, how does that impact us here in ___Albany___?
-If this is a global issue, what can ___Albany____ do about it?
This is going to take a long time to get through and explain. There is an
overwhelming amount of information here. This is a complex issue, and
there are a great many things that need to be demonstrated/explained first
before it will even be possible to start addressing these questions. But even
if you don’t get absolutely everything in this presentation, that’s ok. Please
stick with me, you will still have a much better understanding of our
collectively shared situation by the end.

The Basics:
In order to determine whether the ongoing oil disruption as a result of the closure
of the Strait of Hormuz is actually a crisis, it is important to understand how oil
works.
-”Ok, but don’t we pay people already to understand this stuff?”
Short answer- yes. However, there isn’t a consensus among the experts right
now and we’re looking at basically 2 different lines of thinking as far as whether or
not this is a crisis, and the extent of this crisis if there is one.

Essentially….
“Everything is going to be ok. USA produces enough oil to insulate ourselves. The
rest of the world will have it rough, but we’re going to be just fine- no disruptions
and we definitely won’t run out of gas. The war will be over soon and so too shall
we return to normal. And, the markets agree.”- IEA, News Outlets, Commentators,
the Markets/Exchanges
VS
“This is not hyperbole- we may be looking at a complete collapse of the entire
global economy. This could be ‘end of days’ levels of bad.”- also IEA, News
Outlets, Commentators, Oil CEO’s

First, Consider Iran
-Right now, as of 17 June 2026, the USA has been so utterly defeated in this war that we are,
allegedly, moving forward with an agreement with Iran where:
-They get 300B$ in reparations. That’s several times the reparations paid by
the Weimar Republic during WW1. That’s an entire year’s worth of their GDP.
-Billions in sanctions relief
-Complete control over the Strait of Hormuz
-25B$ up front before anything is even signed
nuclear weapons.

-And they’re still, by the wording in the agreement, allowed to purchase

Iran Cont.
-On Februrary 27-28th, the USA assassinated the Ayatollah, and several members of
his family.
-The Ayatollah’s son is now in charge of the IRGC, making him the supreme authority
there.
-In that attack, his father (the previous supreme leader), wife, his child, his brother in
law, and one of his nieces or nephews were killed. And, he himself was there and
maimed.
-He watched his whole world die in a surprise attack during an active negotiation with
the United States.
-He was reportedly more of a hard liner than his father was. In other words, he was
even more of an extremist….. before we killed his family.

Iran Cont.
-Just keep all of that in mind as you consider whether or not we’re in a crisis.
-Genuinely, what are the chances that he’s going to settle for anything less than
the complete annihilation of the United States?
-Iran has a complete choke hold on the entire global economy through the Strait of
Hormuz. And now they know that. All they have to do is…. nothing.
-And, Iran can see all of the statistical oil inventory data that you’re about to see.
Whatever “deal” we do or do not reach with Iran, just remember all of the above.

You only get to say “The sky is falling” in public once
before no one ever takes you seriously again.
-So which is it? Are we in a crisis or not?
Because of the potential stakes of this issue, and considering historic precedent, it
has become necessary for local leadership nationwide to become familiar with oil
as a general subject in order to determine for our own selves how we believe we
should act.
However, I believe that so far, ______ will be the first municipality to even
consider this issue in any official capacity. Which begs the obvious question
then….

If no one else is concerned with this, why should we be?
-This is what we’re here right now to find out.
The Stakes:
-Police, Fire, and EMS vehicles need fuel to operate and motor oil for
maintenance. If there is a nationwide shortage of either, operations across all
emergency services are impacted. Nationwide includes us here in our own home
town.
-In general, civilians need fuel to leave their house to work and produce goods or
services.
-Logistics need fuel to move those goods.

The Stakes Continued:
-The goods produced and moved by logistics need to be affordable once they arrive at their final
destinations. This includes materials that are further manufactured into consumer goods.
If the goods aren’t affordable, and/or if the cost of logistics to move those goods isn’t justifiable,
production slows or even shuts down across our entire economy (Demand Destruction- more on
that later). Unemployment, homelessness, and public unrest goes up. -1970’s recession
And if this impacts our food supply, how many meals do you imagine people will miss before
they’re lighting fires in the streets? The populace in Kenya is already rioting as their nation has
been among those hit hardest by the oil disruption so far. -Rueters
-And consider: There can still be food on the shelves, but if it becomes too expensive to buy it,
that’s functionally the same as the shelf being completely empty.

So, what do we actually know so far?
-This brings us back to The Basics. To even begin to answer this question, you’re
going to have to have a basic understanding of how oil works, and some history.
Extraction
End user
Consumption

The Cycle

1970’s oil crisis
The Oil Market

Refining/Manufacturing

SPR:
Strategic
Petroleum
Reserve
Cushing Storage

The Cycle
-This is a very basic overview and the depth of nuance here warrants possibly
years of study at the collegiate level followed by several more years of experience
in the field. But we can still get a basic look that helps shine a light on several
topics.
-In short, when it comes to oil → It’s all one big circle that we’ve depended on for
at least the last 50 years to have the way of life that we have.

Consumers create a demand for oil and then…
-We extract that oil
-Then the oil goes onto its own market
-Refiners and Manufacturers buy the oil and turn it into useful things
-Consumers use the end products:
Cars, Trucks, Planes, Trains, Generators, Medicine, Plastics, Gloves, Paint, Heating Oil, Ink, Computers, Phones,
Even Food……

Nearly everything you can think of either has a derivative of oil in it or was made possible because
of oil. If we had the time, I would challenge everyone to find even 1 object in this room that hasn’t been
touched by oil.

Extraction

Extraction
-Historically, extraction has very closely paced consumption/demand
-There are primarily 2 types of oil that we extract from the planet
Heavy/sour (Brent)
Light/sweet (WTI- West Texas Intermediate)

Light Oil vs Heavy Oil
-Light Oil: We here in the USA primarily extract Light(WTI) from our own ground.
It’s cheaper to refine, but it doesn’t have as much sulfur content in it and though
we can get Deisel out of it, we often have to mix it with Heavy oil because of the
way our refineries are built. What is most important to understand here is, USA
refining capacity is NOT geared towards refining of Light oil. We export the vast
majority that we produce to other countries for them to refine. When you hear the
phrase “USA is a net-exporter of oil”- this is why.
-Conversely, we import vast amounts of Heavy oil for our own refining and
production.
“Well, why aren’t we set up to refine our own oil? That doesn’t make sense.”

Actually…Heavy Oil made America #1 in the world
-Heavy oil is significantly more expensive to refine. However, what we are able to
get out of it has been so profitable, that nearly our entire refining industry has
been geared to refine Heavy oil from Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, and the Middle
East (8% of our Heavy oil is/was imported from there)-EIA.
-We bought all that Heavy oil at a significant discount because no one else was/is
setup to spend the extra money that it would cost to refine it.
-This allowed the USA to become dominant across the entire global economy
because everyone wants those end products that we were producing from that
Heavy oil. And again, it has been very, very profitable.

Extraction, Transportation, and Hormuz
-It’s important to note that the 8% of Heavy Oil we were getting out of the strait
took on average, 60 days, to reach the USA coast.
-The strait of Hormuz was mined
-The Pentagon has already said it would take 6 months to clear the mines
-It is completely unrealistic to assume shipping traffic will return to normal quickly
if/when the strait is declared open again
-Put yourself on an oil tanker, would you want to sail into a minefield while hauling
flammable cargo? What if you were the owner of that ship?

Hormuz and Logistics
-Oil infrastructure has been hit with missiles across the entire Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC). That means oil terminals along the strait have been damaged, refineries in
countries surrounding Iran and within Iran have been damaged, and it could take years
before production in the Middle East returnes to pre-war levels.
-Even if we get all the ships currently trapped out, new ships coming in need terminals
to doc with to load more oil. Those terminals have been damaged and there is no
definitive report on exactly when everything will be online again. New ships also need
insurance, and insurers aren’t thrilled about insuring a ship sailing into a
minefield/warzone.
-Even if the war ends today, 6/18/2026, it will take months, at a minimum, before
the 20% loss to the oil supply is returned. And then another 60 days after that for
it to arrive here.

The Oil Market (where the actual crisis lies)
-The Oil Market is significantly more nuanced than what I’m about to explain, but
for the sake of brevity it’s ok to think about it like this:
-No matter where you are in the world, when you extract oil, it all goes
onto the same market.
Extractors are going to sell the oil they extract to the highest bidder. When it
comes to the basic concept of “Supply and Demand”, oil is a perfect product to
demonstrate that concept.

Supply and Demand
-IF there is Demand for oil, producers will extract it to fill that demand. It doesn’t
matter where in the world that demand comes from. However, there must also be
a practical guarantee that that demand will last.
-IF there is an over abundance of Supply, meaning, Supply>Demand, that lowers
the price of oil and Extractors don’t make as much money. After all, it costs money
to extract oil in the first place, so, that oil has to sell at a price that covers and
justifies that cost.
-In a nutshell, this is why any disruption to the oil supply, at all, is a big deal.
Extractors have not built nor will they ever build an excess of production. Because
to have done so would inevitably drive down the sale price of oil- putting them out
of business. The sole exception to this rule is OPEC(more on that later).

Supply and Demand cont.
-The Strait of Hormuz is/was the gateway for roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
That supply was effectively cut off with the start of hostilities with Iran. 20%
effectively just wiped out overnight.
-Through some extreme logistical wizardry, roughly 8% of that has been bypassed
over new land routes that avoid having to use the Strait of Hormuz.-EIA
It is important to note that this is a bandaid and not a solution. We may have, in
essence, recovered ~8% of the supply, but it still cannot be delivered efficiently.
That’s why we weren’t sending that supply over land to begin with.

Supply: Disruption
-The last disruption we have a good historical reference for happened in the
1970’s.
That was a 7% total disruption. And it led to fuel rationing in the USA and a
decade long recession from the 70’s into the early 80’s.
Yes, we have built out production capacity over the last 50 years. But please note
that the disruption we’re seeing today, barring logistical stopgaps, is nearly 3x in
size.

Supply: Once you start pumping oil you can’t stop
-When an Extraction company drills a new oil well, that well runs as long as
possible, because it has to.
-If an oil well is shut down after it has been drilled, the underground pressure
necessary to help get the oil out of the ground in the first place is reduced/lost.
And we can’t get it back. I don’t have enough engineering knowledge to explain
further than that, but this is the gist of it.
-This means that once you turn the rig back on, it’s still going to pump oil,
but now at a greatly reduced rate. If the well/rig doesn’t produce enough oil to
justify the cost of installing and running it, it’s bad news for the extraction
company.

Supply: Then the oil must have somewhere to go…
-Storage for anything is expensive to build and maintain, and Oil is particularly
expensive to store and maintain.
-So, if we’re not consuming the oil we’re producing fast enough, oil wells/rigs may
need to be shut down. After all, there’s nowhere for that oil to go if the
“Extract

Refine”

process backs up…
And if the price isn’t right, we’re not going to be consuming the oil fast enough to
balance the entire process.

Supply: Storage
-2 Main things to consider:
United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Cushing, Oklahoma Oil Storage

Supply: SPR
-In response to the 1970’s oil crisis the USA created a strategic reserve in 1975 in order to weather any future
potential disruptions to the oil supply.
-Above ground storage is expensive, so, we stored hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in underground salt
caverns.
-If the cavern inventory is drawn down too far, they start to collapse. This is not because the caverns themselves
are empty, rather it is because of the water we pump into the caverns as we draw the oil out. That water then
dissolves the salt caverns, which promotes collapse. It also makes extraction increasingly more difficult as
eventually any oil that we pull out will have water and salt in it that has to be removed before refining.
-The official Functional Tank Bottom is around 44M barrels
-What that means: The oil near the bottom isn’t practically useful anyway. It’s tainted with sediment and would
require special extraction equipment to even pull it back out of the reserve. And, at that level the caverns face
severe, permanent, damage.

Supply: SPR
-There is a hard minimum of 150M barrels that is reserved for National Defense.
-The current standard minimum for National Defense is 243M barrels and requires
Presidential approval to draw beyond that point.
-The inventory level in February, before the assassination of the Ayatollah of Iran
and other members of his family, was 415M barrels.
-As of June 12th, the inventory is at 340M and is dropping at a rough average of
8M barrels per week.
-At the current rate of draw down, we should expect to hit the 243M minimum by
September at the latest.

SPR Notes:
-The SPR should be considered functionally empty at 243M. It would be
unthinkably irresponsible for any administration to draw the reserve beyond this
point barring a full scale world-wide military conflict.
-Beyond 240M, the salt caverns become severely damaged according to the DOE.
-Also, all of the oil that is being taken out of the reserve now, must be put back.
That inventory is going to come from the global market just like it would for any
other buyer of oil.
-The USA is not the only nation drawing down its SPR right now.
-Everyone else will have to re-fill their SPRs the same as us.

SPR Point of No Return
-Remember, it will take at least 60 days for a tanker to leave the GCC and arrive
in the USA
-If the SPR runs out at the beginning of September, 60 days out puts a pretty hard
point of no return at around the July 4th weekend.
-That’s just an estimate. It could be sooner. Realistically, the point of no return
was likely February 28th.
-Again, even if traffic starts moving through the strait today, we still won’t have the
full 20% of the oil supply back for several months.

30 July 2026 SPR quick note*
Amos Hochstein, who was the Assistant Secretary of State for Energy under the Obama administration,
and who later was a senior adviser on energy to the Biden administration, stated during the Global Energy
Forum last month that:
“[sic] I don’t know anyone who believes that you can actually draw down the SPR below 300M”
He went on to explain that going below 300 would cause immediate damage and hinder any further
extraction operations.
So, although we have an official policy setting our current release levels, it may be inadequate. Mr.
Hochstein oversaw the previous draw down during Covid and the start of the Ukraine war that took the
SPR down to its previous record low of 347M. That level caused over 100M$ worth of damage to the
caverns.
As of the creation of this slide, we now have roughly 1 ½ weeks before we hit 300M.

Supply: Russia
-The USA SPR reached a near historic low at the beginning of the Russian war
with Ukraine. We were still dealing with demand destruction from Covid and the
sudden conflict in Ukraine caused severe trouble in the oil markets.
-Russia produces about 10-12% of the global oil supply.
-As of May-June 20206, Ukraine has started directly striking Russian oil
production.
-Remember, it doesn’t matter where the oil comes from, it all goes towards the
same global market….. A market that already has a 20% hole in it.
-The historic SPR low set at the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine war is evidence
that the conflict there has had and will have an impact on us here in the USA.

Supply: Cushing Storage Depot
-Cushing serves as the largest above ground oil storage depot in the USA.
-The majority of our pipelines run through there and it provides a central hub for
distribution of oil(WTI) to coastal refineries and shipping depots.
-Where the SPR is owned by the US government, Cushing is owned by private
entities.
-This is oil that, if it isn’t exported, it goes directly into production of petrochemical
products (namely fuel and lubricants) in whatever limited production capacity we
have.

Supply: Cushing and a Note on Storage
-As of the creation of this slide, 17 June 2026, it is extremely likely that Cushing is functionally
empty.
-Remember, it’s important that once we start extracting oil– it must have somewhere to go.
-For the moment, we have a surplus of storage space that’s growing at an alarming rate.
-This might be a good thing later when “Demand Destruction” finally hits.
-However, if the economy goes into a recession or depression and oil consumption is drastically
reduced, that storage capacity will fill back up fairly quickly.
-Once it’s full, the real damage to oil production starts because we’ll have to shut down extraction
sites. This is a long lasting problem that unfolds slowly at first, but then snowballs very quickly.

Supply: “America could be energy independent if we
wanted to be, we just have to pump more oil.”
-This is a sentence that has been uttered in public and the media ad nauseum for
decades. It is a strongly held sentiment by many voters. And it has been a
consistent source of frustration with our government whenever gas prices start to
get high.
After all, why won’t the Federal Government just let us make enough oil so that we
don’t have to rely on other countries, especially the Middle East? We should be
able to make gas cheaper, right?
-If you’ve followed along so far, you already know most of the answer to that
question. Extraction companies can’t operate if the price of oil falls too far down.
And it would cost billions of dollars to build new refineries capable of refining our
own oil anyway. And even then, we’d still be short on Diesel fuel.

Supply cont.
-Because new refineries cost in the Billions of dollars, investors are absolutely not
going to make that kind of investment unless they can be absolutely sure that that
investment is going to pay off. Oil companies pay some of the smartest people on
the planet a considerable amount of money to calculate exactly how much oil they
should produce in order to sell it at the highest price possible. The Federal
Government actually has very little to do with any of it in the end. If the oil
companies themselves can’t justify it, they won’t do it.
-You don’t have to be an oil engineer to get this because even having a basic
understanding of supply and demand allows you to understand why we have the
system that we have.

Supply and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries- AKA Middle Eastern Oil)
-Apart from the basics of Supply and Demand, American oil production has been largely kept in check by
OPEC.
-Our forte from the very beginning has been refining. But OPEC has been specialized in extraction. It’s
right there in the name. And they have considerable cash reserves to weather market fluctuations. They
also sit on considerable stocks of easy-access oil underneath their countries, and have extremely poor
workers rights/protections. It was expensive and possibly inhumane, but they were the first to position
themselves with potential excess production capacity. So, if any other nation were to attempt to build up
their own production in order to compete with them, all they had to do was quickly dump more oil onto the
market, driving the oil price down and stifling their competitors. This is a large factor behind what has been
the USA’s own very gradual increase in production over time. This is why OPEC is referred to as a
“Cartel”. Because of them, USA producers have had to execute a very careful balancing act over decades
in order to slowly grow production to both meet demand and avoid prompting retaliation from OPEC.

Supply: Our own advantages
-Yes, we produce a considerable amount of petroleum products here in the USA.
-And yes, those products are sold to the highest bidders.
Where we have an advantage is the physical distance it takes to move those products outside of
the USA. The farther we have to ship oil and gas, the more expensive that is for the buyer, the
same as Home Depot doesn’t pay shipping for you when you order lumber.
-Because production is local, we don’t have to pay as much in shipping costs for our own oil
products. Therefor, we have an advantage in buying power when it comes to buying our own
products.
If the USA truly is insulated from this crisis, then this is solely why. We are assuming that poorer
countries can’t afford to outbid us for our own oil and gas.

History and Supply and Demand Destruction
-Again, in the 1970’s the world nearly ground to a halt over a 7% disruption to the
oil supply. But how did we recover from that?
Demand Destruction
-When the price of something is too high, demand for that thing is destroyed. But
Demand Destruction is more than people turning away because something
became too expensive to buy.

Demand Destruction
-When the Demand for something goes down, so too must the supply. A producer
can’t produce something if there’s no one to buy it.
-When the 7% disruption hit in the 70’s, oil prices spiked immediately. And they
stayed high, prompting Demand Destruction.
-This led to a decade long recession because suppliers across the entire economy
cut back. Demand Destruction is contagious if it starts at the very foundation of
everything (Oil).

Demand Destruction Unfolding in the 70’s
-Inflation skyrocketed
- Prices for everything rose
-People stopped spending money
-Production pulled back
-This meant jobs were lost
-Ending with the whole economy going into a recession :(

Demand Destruction: Sounds bad, right?
-The harsh reality is, the way Demand Destruction played out in the 1970’s is what
saved us all in the end.
-The disruption hit
-The price of oil spiked and the price was allowed to remain high
-Then the whole world reacted as though the price of oil spiked, as
though there was a disruption
-Producers reacted immediately. Consumption of oil was subsequently reduced—
taking pressure off of the oil supply that had a 7% hole in it. The shock to the economy
as a result was more gradual.

Demand Destruction: A Survival Mechanism
-Sure, we went into a recession, but we came out of it eventually.
-This was only possible because leaders worldwide acted as though there was a
problem/crisis.
-Recovery was made possible by taking steps to address the problem–
immediately.

But Where’s the Demand Destruction Now?
-There is limited Demand Destruction now from poorer countries being forced to cut
back and higher gas prices prompting some people to not take summer trips
-But otherwise, the price of oil has been kept low (through extreme market
manipulation), so the biggest consumers (USA in particular) are still consuming at full
speed.
We’re consuming like normal while there’s still a 20% disruption to the oil supply.
There’s a nearly 3x larger disruption to the oil supply, and we’re not cutting back on
consumption.
NO ONE IS ACTING LIKE THERE IS A CRISIS! And that’s a problem…

Full Speed into a Solid Wall
-Had the price of oil not been manipulated to drive the price down, the USA could have been
acting like there’s a crisis.
-We could have curtailed our consumption (which would probably have meant an immediate
recession…again) and we could have potentially coasted on our reserves without completely
collapsing our economy.
Instead, we’re consuming like there’s not a 20% hole in the oil supply. Storage inventories are
plummeting as a result.
When that storage is gone, what then? We can print money, we can’t print oil.
Instead of a gradual contraction in the economy and production, we’re facing a scenario where we
run out of oil suddenly, bringing everything else to an abrupt and screeching halt.

Operating Minimum Inventories
-Refineries(in particular) and production lines, are difficult to start up and shut
down. It’s both expensive and time consuming.
-So, Operating Minimum Inventories are kept on hand so that, once production
starts, it can run continuously.
-Those inventories depend on a smooth, constant stream of supplies.

Remember, Empty Doesn’t Occur at Zero
-We can extract oil as fast as our noble oil industry can extract it.
But if that doesn’t keep us above “Operating Minimums”...
-Refineries shut down
-And everything down stream shuts down with them

So where does all this so far leave us?

Supply: Competing for our own products
-Is it true that no one can out-bid us for our oil and gas? Does our home-advantage save us?
Well, gasoline stocks are falling in the USA right now as a combined result of increased summer usage, and
refineries shifting production to Jet fuel that is being sold to Europe. -EIA
Why Europe? Because they are in full crisis mode trying to keep their airlines operational and are paying us a
hefty premium.
It’s worth noting that we’ve set a record this year for the largest drop in gasoline inventory over time.-Forbes
-That said, gasoline inventories do have a historical “Jawbone” up and down that coincides with seasonal usage
as refineries switch back and forth between gasoline for summer and heating oil for winter.
-However, all of our production at the current level that we’re maintaining is dependent on our Strategic Petroleum
Reserve and private storage. It is theorized that if we enact export restrictions once the SPR is gone, we should
be able to avoid shortages here at home. However, we don’t have up to date historical empiric data to know for
sure. This is our first time experiencing this situation with our increased production capacity. But again, that will
require that we actually restrict exports(more on that later).

Our Own Supply
-Right now, while we are actively exporting oil, our reserves are going down.
-Will we have enough to keep us afloat if we restrict exports? Again, we don’t
know for sure, we’ve never been here before.
-Our oil industry makes A LOT of money from exports. That money will be
severely stunted if we enact export controls. So the golden question is:
If we enact export controls, will our oil producers stay operational enough to keep
us adequately stocked?

Our Own Supply Cont.
It’s worth noting that we did previously have export controls all the way up until
2015. On the one hand, that’s good news, historically. On the other hand, oil
producers have had over a decade now to become acclimated to the dramatically
increased profits from exports. How they might react to a sudden, dramatic,
reduction in profits when their ability to export to the highest bidder is cut off- is
anyone’s guess. Historically, oil companies have laid off employees whenever the
price of oil has fallen far enough or even during disasters like the BP oil spill in the
Gulf of Mexico.
-We can govern the ability to export oil, but in the end the companies that run the
whole process are still private, for profit, entities. Emphasis on “for-profit”.

Supply: Competing with China
China has reduced its oil imports to an 8 year low in response to the Iran conflict. -oilprice.com,
NY Times

China, over the last several years, has consistently been the largest buyer of oil. -NY times

When looking at the available supply of oil in the world right now, it is important to note that the
biggest buyer has stepped aside…. for the moment. As far as the rest of the world is concerned,
China is saving the rest of the global financial system by stepping aside and lowering their oil
imports. Because in doing so, that has taken a significant amount of pressure off of the oil markets.
On the other hand, it’s also helped keep prices down during a time when we universally, and
badly, need the opposite to be happening.

Supply: USA vs China
By contributing to lowering the price of oil worldwide, China has placed
themselves both politically and strategically in a position of leverage over
everyone.
-Remember, as things stand now, oil inventories are still continuing to fall.
How China is able to curtail their own imports is likely due to their own large SPR.
If you were China right now, when would you open up your imports again?
-Remember, no one outside of the poorest countries are really curtailing their oil
consumption right now because oil prices are still relatively low.

Supply: USA vs China
-The USA can certainly outbid poorer countries for its own oil.
-But China is the 2nd richest country in the world.
So, the million dollar question then is: can the USA outbid China for its own oil if
the world supply hits critical levels and China steps back onto the market? As far
as I can tell, we don’t actually know.
-Again, if we enact Export Controls, it might not matter. But export controls cut into
potential profits for oil companies. And, doing so may throw us into another world
war because the rest of the global economy is depending on our production right
now. So, would we actually enact export controls? Maybe. However….

Supply: Market Manipulation by the USA
-Since the start of the war, per CNN, Trump has claimed that[sic] “There’s a deal with Iran for the
end of the war”- 38 times (Update* this slide was originally created in June but as of 30 July 2026
we’re now up to 40.)
-Every time Trump claims “victory” or “peace”, the price of oil falls on the futures markets. And
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might be shorting the futures market with American Tax dollars.
Though this isn’t fully confirmed, it is a likely explanation.
-In any case, the lower futures price has kept the physical price lower than it could have been.
-Many of those “peace” claims have coincided with the opening and closing of the markets over
the weekends. And there is crystal clear evidence that insiders within the administration have been
profiting immensely from shorting the oil markets, with profits on trades totaling into the billions
now.

Supply: The Trump Weekly Cycle
Monday- “We’re going to bomb them back into the stone age”
Tuesday/Wed- “I’ve decided to give Iran a chance”
Thursday/Friday- Strikes are carried out on both sides
Friday night- “We’re going to wipe out Iran with thunder and fury the likes of which
no one has ever seen”
Saturday/Sunday- “Good news everyone Iran has agreed to peace, we won”
Sunday night- “Peace is imminent”
Monday- Iran says “there was never a deal”, and the cycle repeats.

Supply: The Trump Cycle
Trump has repeated that pattern, nearly verbatim, every week for the last 3
months. And in that time, market traders have placed massive bets on the market
and won hundreds of millions of dollars with uncanny perfect timing.
A simple search of “suspicious timing, oil futures shorts” brings up several sources
showing a very clear pattern of insider trading happening right now, right in front of
us.

Supply: I’ll say the quiet part out loud
Trump, and those around him, are profiting directly off of the current oil market
crisis. This is a level of brazen corruption we’ve never seen before. It’s happening
in broad daylight, right in front of us. They’re not even trying to hide it.

So this is where a very important question comes in“If it comes down to it, would Trump really actually enact export controls on
oil?” Because in the end, it will come down to him to make that happen.

Supply: Trump and Export Controls
Well, let’s look at several things that seem unrelated, but they all tie in together at the end.
-After the first Trump administration where there is a full report on Trump colluding with Russia that’s so
damaging that it’s almost completely redacted…
-After the stolen top secret documents case that was luckily handled by Trump’s hand picked Judge,
Aileen Canon, where anyone with eyes can see Trump endangered US National Security…
-After Trump’s utter and complete failure to address Covid-19 and the resulting over 1 Million deaths in the
USA alone (Which placed the USA among the highest casualty rate per capita globally), and now we have
a resurgence of anti-vaccine activists- and measles.
-After the complete desecration of the constitution (particularly the 4th amendment) through Trump’s
militarization and deployment of ICE, launching outright sieges on multiple US cities in strictly Blue states,
resulting in multiple civilian casualties and deaths.

Supply: Trump and Export Controls cont.
-After receiving bribes both from foreign countries (400M$ plane from Qatar just to name 1, 2B$ to
his son Kushner from Saudi Arabia to name another) and bribes from the largest companies (This
one was so blatant it made an entire episode of South Park)
-After having to fire so many senior Military officials before he could even start this war with Iran
-And then after starting this war with Iran, without any actual cause (Our own top counter terrorism
official reported as much in March before resigning- Joe Kent)
-After attempting to make a 1.7 B$ slush fund for J6 rioters, and permanently exempting his entire
family from IRS audits
-After thousands of Tweets with less decorum than a 12 year old on a sugar high, some even
celebrating the deaths of both US citizens and US officials, and the rest outright demonizing an
entire half of the political spectrum in this country.

Supply: Trump and Export Controls cont.
-After hosting a UFC event on the taxpayer dime on the White House front lawn,
complete with a brawl between objectively trashy members of the crowd on OUR
nationally sacred ground, where also one of the fighters called, unprompted, the
previous First Lady, Michelle Obama, a man on that national stage
-After all the sweeping Tarrifs
-After the SCOTUS unwinding those Tarrifs
-And finally, after even more Tarrifs after that……

The quiet part out loud
“Drill baby, drill”- DJT
Do you believe Donald J Trump would enact export controls on US oil?
If so, why would you believe that?
Even then, after everything you’ve seen in the last 10 years, how much are you
willing to bet on it?

To be or Not to be, 2 Questions are Why We’re Here
Barring everything so far,
-Is it rational to take no action at all to address a possible scenario where we run
out of fuel locally?
Considering everything so far,
-Is it still rational to take no action at all to address a possible scenario where we
run out of fuel locally?
Are you equally confident to say “yes” for both of these questions? They’re the
same question save for 1 word. But this is vitally important and the point of this
entire presentation- Are you equally confident to say “yes” for both of these
questions?

And I get it, why is no one else concerned?
-No other municipalities are taking steps to address this issue.
-No one at any level of government is acting like there’s a problem, much less a crisis.
You’ve seen the same data everyone else can see. Inventories are dropping and it
objectively looks like we’re going to hit empty soon/eventually.
-Where’s the concern? Where are the adults? Why is no one acting like there’s a
problem?
I don’t know. But after what you just saw, do you still feel like there isn’t a problem?
That’s what’s important here. Because it’s up to us to do something about it.

Why is no one else concerned? Cont.
There is a tragic vacuum of leadership in this country. No one has enough spine to disturb the
status quo. And how dare anyone threaten a stock market that’s gone above 50000 (Dow) with
negative facts.
There is an utter void of leadership at the top. The people running our Federal Government are
bereft of anything even remotely resembling the capability to lead. For starters, demonizing half
the country is not leadership. And the stock market is not God. And there’s more on that in an
addendum to these slides at the end.
Coming to terms with this right now is the first step to not being blindly led into disaster by greedy
fools, monsters, or possibly even traitors.
We may be the first to address this. Ok, that’s super unfortunate. But that’s not our fault. If no one
else will step up to lead, then it finally falls on us to do so, and hopefully we can set an example for
others.

Ok, what can we do?
I’m glad you asked…
-Every town has a fuel reserve built into their local gas stations to potentially keep emergency services in
operation, they just don’t know it yet.
-First, we can figure out our exact fuel needs. Then, we can come together with the local gas
stations to establish an emergency reserve. If the reserve is spread across enough gas stations, a single
tanker truck can go to each station and pull out each station’s portion of the reserve to deliver it to our own
fuel farm.
-Let’s explain the stakes to the gas station owners. Open the dialogue. We can come to an
agreement. They’re in this boat with the rest of us.
-Alternatively, we can determine a switch case where “If ____ happens, we will assume control
of either a portion or all of the local private inventory”, and sort through the fallout afterwards.

What can we do? Cont.
-These are unprecedented times. That’s going to call for outside-the-box thinking.
We’re going to have to get creative. And there’s not enough time to be nice about it.
-The rule of law was not designed with potential societal collapse in mind.
There is no regulation for this kind of scenario.
-It might be messy. Just come to terms with that now. The dust will settle
eventually, and we can sort out potential legal transgressions or hurt feelings when
we’re not in a crisis.
-There is no “I can’t ____ because the rules say so” if the entire global economy
suddenly comes to a complete standstill. And decorum is for when things are
functioning normally. Decorum during a crisis- can be a stone cold killer. We’re
typically taught the opposite of that statement. But we’re wrong.

What can we do? Cont.
-Leadership is going to require being direct. And it’s going to require the community. Don’t get lost in decorum when dealing with the
community because you only get to lose the people during a crisis once. Do not confuse decorum with order. Because those in power
now, including the City Council, exercise their authority at our, the public’s, discrestion. And after the countless dispicable events that
have transpired over the last 19 months, anyone operating in a governing capacity needs to be aware just how tenuous their position
really is right now.
-The public has been tortured with price gouging and shot dead in the street to thunderous applause by the perpetrators acting on
behalf of the Federal government with ZERO accountability, and yet citizents in some cities are being arrested for clapping during
public comment at City Council meetings. That will only be tolerated for so long… And that’s not a threat, that’s a lesson learned over
and over and over again throughout human history.
-If something feels like it goes against decorum, but is factually/objectively correct, that’s a self-imposed issue. It’s not
the community’s issue. That might be a tough lesson to learn for some. Stick with it. We’ll get through this.
-Being direct is going to mean we’re going to have to tell the public to prepare themselves for some very difficult times in the near
future. Most people are severely uninformed and have no idea what’s happening. So if our accustomed way of life comes to an abrupt
pause, most people might not react well. A common reaction to a bad surprise- is panic.

What can we do? Cont.
-If we can at least get the possibility of tough times into the minds of everyone,
then when or if those times arrive, they won’t be surprised.
-Informing the public should also consist of constructive and helpful
information. If we were to produce and release something like a pamphlet,
warning of potentially tough times ahead, the natural concern for us might be
causing a panic ourselves.
-We can avoid that by being careful in our presentation. That will include
making an attempt to inspire confidence.

What can we do? Inspiration
Inspiration comes in many forms.
-Promoting an idea of community- “You’re not alone, we’re all in this together”
-We’re tribal creatures. Lean into that. Foster a sense of
collectivism. We have a university campus nearby, ask a psychology teacher for help
with messaging.
-Fostering a sense of community will require bringing the
community together. That means getting out there, talking to people, getting them
involved. Ask for help.
-Tap local organizations like the Legion, VFW, Chamber of
Commerce (I know one member in particular who’s a communal wizard), Rotary,
Masons, etc. Get everyone onboard working together, NOW, and contributing towards

What can we do? Inspiration Cont.
-You know what else inspires people? Knowledge. Problems are easier to face
when you have an idea on how to approach them.
-We may be facing mass food insecurity. So, let’s educate the
community on some basic gardening skills.
-Oregon is filled with “preppers”, so let’s put out the call. Have
them come in and volunteer to teach their survival skills to others and/or add
material to an informational pamphlet.
-If our way of life as we know it came to a pause, how could we
weather it? Let’s get the people who know the answer to that in the same room as
the people making decisions.

What can we do? It’s time to get Electric.
-It’s time to diversify our emergency vehicle fleets with electric vehicles. And honestly, we’re currently showing up
very late to this particular party.
This obviously won’t happen overnight. But we need to begin the process by ensuring that we have at least 1
electric vehicle across Fire/EMS/APD, and we need to do so ASAP.
Even if I’m 100% wrong about all of this, the fact remains that we have, objectively, come very close to going over
a very uncomfortable edge. And it’s a particular edge that might not have a way back. That threat alone justifies
action.
I’ve already spoken with multiple dealerships in town and so far. Albany CDJR and Albany Toyota are willing to
work with the city to help fulfill its needs. And Albany CDJR stands ready to hold their electric vehicle inventory for
City use in the event of a fast moving crisis. That said, Electric Vehicle inventories are extremely low across the
board. And the current oil and gas situation, our current regulatory policies, and our embargo on Chinese EV’s, is
contributing to a severely restricted supply of electric vehicles. So our time to move slowly around this has long
since passed.

Last Slide
I’m just 1 person. And I just gave you 6+ slides worth of options to address this crisis. Surely, we
can do even more/better with more minds involved in this.
It’s time to come together as a community, and in a way we’re neither used to nor conditioned to.
But as I have already demonstrated by simply going out and having conversations within the
community, all it takes is just that- having a conversation. From there we can start to build upon
whatever our needs may be.
I am not a particularly intelligent person. If I can come up with 6 slides worth of possibility by
myself, I refuse to believe that we can’t come together as a community to figure this thing out.
And if it turns out there’s somehow no crisis in the end, our efforts wont have been a complete
loss. Again, that we’ve even come as far along as we have with the current Oil situation should be
a wake up call for all of us at the very least.

Addendum 30 July 2026
The situation has escalated since I last worked on these slides .
-We caught a momentary breather with an MOU that bought us some time, however that’s over and done.
-Bab al Mandeb is now effectively cut off. That means a whole 30% of the global oil supply is impacted.
-The pipelines in Saudi Arabia that were bypassing oil from Hormuz over to BAM have been blown up on both ends of the pipeline. So,
even if the waterways were open, there’s significantly reduced oil coming out of the largest oil producing country in the Middle East.
-Refining capacity, particularly in Russia, has been devastated. This has somewhat taken the demand off of the oil supply, however, it
doesn’t remotely cover the 30% of the entire supply that came from the GCC being effectively cut off.
As of 29 July 2026, EIA is reporting that our total oil inventory fell 11M barrels over the last week. 4M came from the SPR which now
sits at 307.7 M barrels and the rest came from commercial inventory. As stated in an earlier slide, we have 1 ½ weeks before we hit
300M in the SPR, which may turn out to be the actual floor. Also, Cushing is now down around 18M, which is 2M below minimal
operating inventory levels.

Escalation Cont.
-We narrowly dodged a hurricane over the last 8 weeks that would have sat right on top of our own entire gulf oil production capacity.
Refineries along the gulf shut in production for a matter of hours in case the storm intensified. Thankfully, and luckily, and in spite of the
record warm water temps in the gulf of Mexico right now, the storm dissipated. I cannot adequatly stress the level of good fortune and
luck at play here.
-Speaking of Albany CDJR, after talking with them I was informed that they had to send their service personnel over to Auto
Zone to buy out their oil. They did this because their own bulk carrier cancelled their oil delivery order for the first time in at
least the last 20 years that the manager I spoke to has worked in the industry.
When this body last met in June, I said that the cracks would start to show in July. This is one of those cracks I was talking about.
I also said that, by September, no one in this country would be unaware that there’s a crisis. Honestly, even I didn’t believe Bab el
Mandeb would really, actually, come into play here. It was pretty unthinkable. But is has. And as a result we are in the worst possiblecase scenario right now, and September might be very well be on the conservative side of my estimations. So, barring any other
extreme swings of good fortune, we’re right on track to run out of feed stock for our refineries by September at the latest. When that
happens, America will shut down.

Escalation Cont.
At this point, I would strongly advise anyone with any amount of influence within the Oregon State Government to
urge the Governor to declare a state of emergency.
We already do that pre-emptivly for things like fire-season so that resources can be made readily available.
This is an emergency. We are in an emergency right now. And our Federal government is continuing to do
nothing to address it, and in fact it is wholly inflaming the entire situation with its every action.
We already watched this administration fumble the distribution of paper face masks during a pandemic that we
had months to prepare for. And then, we couldn’t even manage a cohesive message on vaccination or
lockdowns. The USA had the highest fatality rate per capita in the entire world from Covid as a result, and it
wasn’t even close. We had to bring in refrigeration trucks to handle the number of dead bodies because the
morgues couldn’t keep up. I personally sat imobile for 8 months waiting for a hospital bed to open up so I could
get a gallstone surgically removed. Thankfully I didn’t end up septic. But what I saw inside the hospital when I
finally did get surgery, much later into the pandemic, was nothing short of horrific. Our medical system has still not
fully recovered to this day. And that was before DOGE and the gutting of our civil work force.

Escalation Cont.
There will be no “whole of government response” when the coming shortages start in earnest. And if we fail to act because of an
assumption that upper levels of government, who again couldn’t distribute face masks under what will objectively be significantly less
pressure- if we do nothing because we believe that they will successfully manage a sudden emergency rationing of oil and fuel, our
community is going to suffer right along with the rest of this country. The writing is still written in blood on the wall from Covid.
So, if you tell me that our own emergency services won’t run out of fuel, after Covid, after the publicly available oil inventory data, and
after the last 19 months of this administration- I don’t believe you. At all.
We’re in the midst of the worst oil disruption in history, and by worst I mean it’s not even close this time to the previous record, yet the
City of Albany can’t bring the resources together to produce a report on what our own fuel needs are. Frankly, we’ve reached the point
of disgrace. So, why then, should any member of the public believe that Albany’s emergency services will be spared when the supply
runs out for the entire country? And not simply run out, but run out all at once from coast to coast.
We couldn’t even hold the special PSC meeting that was unanimously voted upon by this commission in June to address this
issue. And as of the creation of this slide, 30 July 2026, we don’t even have a confirmed quorum for the August 5th meeting. And the
City Council cancelled its own work session on the 10th after having gone on a month long break.

Escalation Cont.
We are falling straight off a cliff and no one is at the wheel.
And we are emergently running out of time to do better.
As little as we are demonstrating the capacity to manifest on our City-level when the subject matter
doesn’t happen to concern Flock Cameras, our higher levels of government are demonstrating an
even greater lacking. There’s a current parasitic outbreak across 45 states right now affecting
produce, and we can’t even manage a simple product recall anymore. Measles is making a
comeback. Screw worm is back on our side of the southern border. Oregon was just denied
federal funds to fight our current forest fires because we’re not officially pro-Trump per our voter
rolls. And I haven’t even scratched the surface. Tariffs against Canada are back after SCOTUS
ruled against the last set of tariffs which saw ZERO of that money sent back to the public that it
was taken from. ICE is shooting even more citizens dead in the streets over a violation of the law
that’s in the same realm of legal severity as speeding tickets. We’d be here all night going over
another 100+ slides if I were to even try to truly dig down into the true magnitude of the current
Federal failings.

Escalation Cont.
No one is coming to save us or even help us. And we had better start acting like it while we’ve still got a city to live in. No one alive has
seen anything like this current crisis. It can’t even be compared to the 1970’s anymore. This is the single greatest crisis of the modern
era. And no one is lifting a finger to address it.
When I say no one is at the wheel, I mean our entire societal framework is being torn down by a rogue Federal Government and we
don’t even have regular City Council meetings on the agenda because of either cancellations or simply not scheduling them. And it’s
somehow too much to ask that the PSC meet up more than bi-monthly.
We’ve been at a point where an eternity has seemingly passed by every single month for the last 19 months. And for the last 19
months we have flatly refused to rise to the occasion. And now we’re only a few months out from an election that has the potential to
devolve into a full-blown civil war. Minnesota just had 30 town’s water systems hacked. And we can’t even begin to talk about any of
that because this Oil crisis absolutely must come first. But again, we just wont show up.
Is this really the best that Albany can do? Are we really going to try to skid by on a bare minimum to maintain a status quo that hasn’t
truly existed since January of 2025? Because if that’s so, I wouldn’t give us a penny for our chances with this oncoming oil disaster.
And I wish everyone the best of luck.