Fact-Checking Vendor Crime Stats Behind ALPR Claims

In February 2024, Forbes examined a crime-reduction claim that ALPR maker Flock Safety had made about San Marino, California, after the city installed its cameras. Flock pointed to falling crime as proof the system worked. Forbes pulled the underlying numbers and found burglaries had actually gone up in the period after installation. The episode is a useful reminder: a vendor’s press release is marketing, not evidence. Here’s how any resident, reporter, or council member can check a crime-reduction claim before repeating it.

Why These Claims Deserve Scrutiny

ALPR vendors have a financial incentive to show their product works. That doesn’t make every claim false, but it means the burden of proof belongs on the company, not the public. A city council quoting a vendor’s own slide deck is not the same as an independent finding.

Step 1: Find the Original Data Source

Ask where the numbers came from. Did the vendor pull them from the local police department’s official crime reports, or did they generate their own count internally? If the vendor is the source of both the claim and the data, that’s a conflict of interest worth naming out loud.

Step 2: Check the Time Window

Crime statistics are noisy over short periods. A single quarter or even a single year can swing widely due to random variation, unrelated to any policy change. Look for multi-year trends, and be suspicious of any comparison that conveniently starts right before installation and ends right after a dip.

Step 3: Compare Apples to Apples

Make sure the crime category being touted is the same one being measured. “Crime” can mean overall reported incidents, specific categories like burglary or auto theft, or arrests — and these do not always move together. A vendor might highlight a drop in one narrow category while broader crime, or a different category like burglary, moved the opposite direction.

Step 4: Look at the Regional Trend

Crime rates rise and fall across entire counties and states for reasons that have nothing to do with any one city’s cameras — economic conditions, policing changes, weather, and reporting practices all play a role. If crime dropped in the vendor’s city but also dropped by a similar amount in neighboring towns without ALPR systems, the cameras probably aren’t the explanation.

Step 5: File a Public Records Request

Local police departments are generally required to maintain and disclose crime statistics through open-records laws. Request the raw incident data directly from the department rather than relying on a vendor’s summary. Ask specifically for the same time period and crime categories the vendor cited, plus a few years before and after for context.

Step 6: Ask Who Did the Counting

Find out whether an independent auditor, academic researcher, or government oversight body verified the numbers — or whether the analysis was produced entirely by the vendor’s own marketing or sales team. Independent verification matters far more than a polished chart.

What To Do With What You Find

If the numbers don’t hold up, say so publicly — at a city council meeting, in a letter to local media, or in a comment on a public-records portal. Bring the underlying data, not just your conclusion. If your city already has ALPR cameras, check the map to see what’s been deployed near you. If a vendor is pitching your council right now, our action guide walks through the right questions to ask before any contract is signed. And if you want background on how these systems work before you dig into the data, start with our learn section.

You Don’t Have to Do This Alone

Fact-checking a vendor’s crime claim is exactly the kind of work local chapters take on together — filing records requests, comparing datasets, and presenting findings to elected officials. Find or start a group near you through our chapters directory.